"Average rate of 3.11% for 2025": New mortgage loans rise again in June

Excluding renegotiations, the total new mortgage loans granted in June stood at €12.9 billion (compared to €11.5 billion in May), an unprecedented amount since January 2023.

Over the first half of the year, the cumulative amount of new real estate loans "recorded an increase of +46% compared to the same period of the previous year," the Banque de France emphasizes.

This apparent renewed vigor of the mortgage market since the beginning of the year is, however, "for many" linked to a "particularly degraded basis of comparison, that of the first months of 2024" , recalled the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory in its latest note, published in mid-July.

"Much lower than its average level from 2016 to 2019"

The first six months of 2024 were indeed marked by weak activity in the mortgage market, while interest rates reached record highs.

For the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory, the current recovery has "not erased the consequences of the crisis that has shaken the markets since 2020" and the activity of the real estate loan market "remains well below its average level from 2016 to 2019", whether in terms of the number of loans granted (-28%) or the cumulative amount of all loans granted (-39%).

Excluding renegotiations, the average interest rate for all new real estate loans (excluding fees and insurance), all durations combined, stabilized in June at 3.10% (after 3.11% in May and 3.13% in April), according to data published by the Banque de France.

"We estimate that we will have an average rate of 3.11% in 2025," explained Michel Mouillart, professor of economics responsible for the presentation of the CSA/Crédit Logement observatory, during an online conference in mid-July.

"For 2026, we believe that the macroeconomic environment will support a rise in mortgage rates," which could possibly lead to "the year 2026 ending at 3.40%," he assured.